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Early Oscar Predictions

 
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GandalfTheWhite
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Post30 Oct 2005 07:18 pm
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Anybody have any films you think are going to be in the running.

Here is a list I think might have potential (giving a * to ones I think will be likely be it.)

Crash
*Brokeback Mountain
*Walk the Line
Capote
Good Night, and Good Luck
The New World
Broken Flowers
*Memoirs of a Geisha
A History of Violence
Cinderella Man
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tracy_flick
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Post07 Nov 2005 03:25 pm
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A Prairie Home Companion.
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Kernan
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Post07 Nov 2005 05:14 pm
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As much as I admired Broken Flowers the push from the studio has been weak. Bill Murray has an outside shot at best actor but more attention is being paid to Steve Martin's Bill Murray goes L.A impression in Shop Girl than remember Broken Flowers.
I think you are smart to put Cinderella Man on this list because though most have written that movie off the second wind Cinderella Man is getting from it's studio marketing department is going to be huge and watch out for Cinderella Man at the globes. The globes reputation is bad but the results have been remarkably influential, whether they deserve that influence is a whole other conversation.
Munich, The Producers and Mrs. Henderson Presents are all getting strong buzz. What has been fascinating has been watching potential oscar nominees tanking when they go wide and whether the box office will effect the awards. In a right and just world box office should play no role but the perception of the film as a failure can tend to effect voters feelings about the film. In Her Shoes, North Country, Proof and Constant Gardener all terrific movies and all seen as underperforming at the box office and the perception is effecting the buzz.
Regardless of buzz I loved Good Night and Good Luck, Crash, North Country, In Her Shoes and Sin City. I also loved the Enron doc Smartest Guys In The Room but that movie has zero chance of a best picture nomination.
Not to stray to far off the topic but docs, animated films and foreign films are never again going to compete for Best Picture as long as they have seperate categories for their genres. That sucks!
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GandalfTheWhite
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Post09 Nov 2005 01:31 am
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I would love to see Sin City, Batman, and 2046 get nominations (favorites this year)I don't think its going to happen.

I should probably add to the list of POSSIBLE ones:

Munich
Pride and Prejudice
The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe
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Ham Sandwich
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Post09 Nov 2005 03:36 pm
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Here's my list with commentary:

Crash - It's possible but not probable. It got good reviews but when compared to some other films, it's likelihood of winning is slim.
Brokeback Mountain - Just its subject matter will likely get a nomination, but I don't have much confidence in Ang Lee making that good of a movie.
Capote - The first time I saw the trailer, I knew I had to see it. Unfortunately it hasn't yet reached Columbus. Still, this and GNGL are the most likely to get the win. There might also be a Best Actor nomination/win for Hoffman. I hope.
Good Night and Good Luck - Haven't seen it, but it looks like perfect Oscar material to me and it looks good to boot.
The New World - It's quite possible that this could wow critics when it's released and gain a nomination, but it's up in the air at this point.
Munich - Looks really good. Not entirely sure if it is Oscar material though.
Jarhead - I can see it happening to maybe get a nomination. Mendes is one of my favorite directors and the reviews have been pretty good so far. Doubt it will win, though.
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Cinephile
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Post21 Nov 2005 06:42 pm
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i vowed never to watch the oscars ever again.

but here are my nom predictions:

"Cinderella Man" nom for best picture and best actor
"A History of Violence" nom for best actor and best supporting actress
"King Kong"....definitely nominated for the big awards....maybe all of them
"Narnia"...nom for best film
"Jarhead"...nom possibly for something...but a stretch
"Syriana"....nom for something since it's the typical liberal crap.
"Capote".....mortal lock for best actor win.
"Constant Gardner"....possible nom for something
"Broken FLowers" ....possible nom for actor
"Walk the Line"...possible for actor and supporting actress...."why wasn't named "man in black"?...probably because of confusion with Men in Black I and II!!!


"Electra"!!! mortal lock for 4 razzies...worst actress, worst film, worst director, worst sccreenplay.
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